Ukraine Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026

UKRAINE · POLITICS

How Power Is Shared in Kyiv

Ukraine is a republic in which three offices share power. The president commands the armed forces and steers foreign and security policy, the prime minister runs the cabinet, and the Rada passes laws and must approve the prime minister.

This guide is part of The Rio Times series on European politics. See also our guides to Spain and Germany’s AfD debate.

Zelenskyy, a former television actor, won the presidency in 2019 and still sets the course on the war and on relations with Washington and Brussels. Ukrainian law bars national elections while martial law is in force, so no presidential or parliamentary vote has been held since 2019.

Martial law has applied since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. The current 90-day period runs to 31 October 2026, and parliament is due to vote on the next extension.

The July Change of Government

The Rada dismissed Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko on 14 July 2026 by 258 votes to one, three days short of her first year in office. Neither Zelenskyy nor Svyrydenko gave an official reason.

Two days later, on 16 July, 289 deputies voted for Serhii Koretskyi, who had run Naftogaz, Ukraine’s state oil and gas company, since May 2025. Parliament approved 16 ministers the same day, including Denys Uliutin as social policy minister.

For a reader abroad, the change shows how much the system runs through the president. A new prime minister took over within two days, but war, peace talks and the relationship with the United States remain with Zelenskyy.

The Peace-Talks Question

The sharpest political question is whether Ukraine, the United States and Russia sit down together. Zelenskyy said on 22 October, on his way back from Norway, that Kyiv supports a US proposal for talks between negotiating teams, preferably no later than early November.

He said Russia had signalled support after Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s special envoy, met President Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg. Reports say Moscow has pointed to a date after 10 November, and no venue or delegation has been announced.

Where Ukraine Stands With the EU and NATO

Ukraine’s constitution commits the state to a course towards membership of the European Union and NATO. Membership of either is not close, and neither organisation has set a date.

The harder question is what any peace deal would mean for that course. Neither the talks proposal nor the government’s public statements have settled it.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, where US$3.7 million has been traded, prices a 6.5% chance that Zelenskyy is out as president by the end of 2026. A separate market, with US$9.8 million traded, gives 71% to a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by 31 December 2027.

These prices are bets, not polls, and they were read on 26 October at 1:31 a.m. ET. They show what traders expect, not what any government has promised.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for US Readers

For Americans, Ukraine’s government matters because Washington is a central broker of the peace push and a major supplier of military and financial help. A new prime minister has not changed that dependence, because Zelenskyy still sets war and foreign policy.

Koretskyi’s background is in energy, which is relevant because winter power and gas supply are a central test for any Ukrainian government. Investors in European energy and defence should watch how his cabinet handles supply and repairs.

If working-level talks open in November, the first signals will be a date, a venue and the names of the delegations. Those details would show whether Moscow’s reported support is real.

What Is Not Known

Neither Zelenskyy nor Svyrydenko has explained why parliament dismissed her. Whether the change reflects policy, politics or personal disputes is not public.

It is not known whether the three-way talks will take place, when, where, or who will attend. Russia’s position reaches us through US officials, not from Moscow directly.

No date exists for the next national election, because it can only follow the end of martial law. This guide also does not give seat numbers for the parliamentary factions, because we could not confirm current figures.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who runs Ukraine in October 2026?

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy leads the state and the war effort. Serhii Koretskyi has been prime minister since 16 July 2026 and runs the cabinet.

Why did Ukraine change its prime minister?

The Verkhovna Rada dismissed Yuliia Svyrydenko on 14 July by 258 votes to one and approved Koretskyi on 16 July. No official reason has been given.

When is Ukraine’s next election?

There is no date. Ukrainian law bars national elections while martial law is in force, and the last presidential and parliamentary votes were in 2019.

Are Ukraine and Russia about to hold peace talks?

Zelenskyy said on 22 October that Ukraine backs a US proposal for three-way talks between negotiating teams, preferably by early November. Reports say Russia points to a date after 10 November, and no venue has been announced.

What do prediction markets say about Zelenskyy?

Polymarket gave a 6.5% chance on 26 October that Zelenskyy leaves office by the end of 2026. These prices are bets, not polls.

Sources: Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, appointment of Prime Minister Koretskyi; Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine; Constitution of Ukraine; Polymarket and Kalshi public market data, read 26 October 2026.