Dave Aranda's tenure at Baylor peaked in 2021, when the Bears won a program-record 12 games, captured the Big 12 championship and claimed a Sugar Bowl victory. Nearly five years later, he was fired following Saturday's 25-24 loss at Kansas, finishing his six-plus seasons in Waco with a 40-40 record.
Baylor's decline can't be traced to a single mistake, but several of Aranda's decisions played a role in the program's inability to sustain its success. Some made sense at the time but ultimately backfired, while others were mistakes he later acknowledged.
Here are five of the most questionable decisions of Aranda's Baylor tenure.
1. Being Slow to Embrace the Transfer Portal
Aranda's emphasis on player development helped establish the culture behind Baylor's 2021 championship, but that same philosophy arguably kept the Bears from adapting quickly enough to college football's changing roster landscape.
Baylor added only 10 scholarship transfers during Aranda's first three seasons before bringing in 12 during the 2023 cycle. While other programs increasingly used the portal to address immediate needs, the Bears remained more reliant on developing players already on their roster.
Aranda later acknowledged struggling with bringing in transfers when doing so could mean passing over players he had recruited and developed.
That reluctance became particularly costly following the 2021 season, when Baylor lost several important contributors, including Jalen Pitre, JT Woods, Terrel Bernard and Abram Smith.
Replacing that experience and production was never going to be easy, but the transfer portal offered opportunities to address weaknesses before they became bigger problems. Instead, Baylor struggled to maintain the depth and physicality that had helped it win the conference championship.
Aranda eventually became much more aggressive in the portal, but the adjustment came after Baylor had already fallen behind.
2. Failing to Balance NIL Investments Across the Roster
Aranda's roster-building decisions contributed to Baylor's struggles to find consistency on both sides of the ball during his final two seasons.
In 2025, the Bears invested heavily in offensive playmakers and produced one of the nation's most productive passing attacks. However, Baylor finished 5-7 as its defense allowed 32.6 points per game, often leaving the offense to make up for defensive shortcomings.
At Big 12 Media Days in July 2026, Aranda acknowledged spending too much money on skill-position players and not enough on the offensive and defensive lines.
He responded by directing more resources toward the trenches and hiring Joe Klanderman to coordinate the defense. Baylor's defense emerged as the team's greatest strength in 2026, although the offense struggled to keep pace.
The offensive line remained a weakness despite Baylor adding several transfers at the position. The Bears struggled to establish the run and consistently protect DJ Lagway.
Although Baylor invested in both sides of the ball entering 2026, the results highlighted a familiar problem. After relying heavily on its offense in 2025, the Bears found themselves depending on their defense the following season.
Despite changing his approach, Aranda never quite found the right balance between the two sides of the ball.
3. Replacing Ron Roberts With Matt Powledge
Aranda had reason to overhaul Baylor's defensive staff following the 2022 season, but his choice of replacement proved questionable.
Defensive coordinator Ron Roberts helped build one of the nation's strongest units during Baylor's 2021 championship run, allowing just 18.3 points per game. However, the defense regressed in 2022, surrendering 26.8 points per game as the Bears struggled to replace several key contributors.
Aranda parted ways with Roberts and hired Matt Powledge, who had previously coached at Baylor before spending one season as Oregon's co-defensive coordinator. Although familiar with the program, Powledge had considerably less experience directing a defense than his predecessor.
The change didn't produce the improvement Baylor needed. The Bears allowed 33.3 points per game in 2023 and finished 3-9, their worst record under Aranda. He subsequently took over defensive play-calling responsibilities himself in 2024.
Moving on from Roberts wasn't necessarily a mistake, given Baylor's defensive regression in 2022. But replacing an experienced coordinator with Powledge backfired, as the Bears endured another defensive decline before Aranda restructured his staff again.
4. Choosing Blake Shapen Over Gerry Bohanon
Few decisions generated more debate during Aranda's tenure than his quarterback choice following Baylor's 2021 championship.
Gerry Bohanon helped lead the Bears to a 12-2 record, providing an experienced dual-threat presence in an offense that averaged more than 200 rushing yards per game.
However, Blake Shapen impressed while filling in for an injured Bohanon late in the season. He completed 23 of 28 passes against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game, helping Baylor secure its first outright conference title since 2013.
That performance made Shapen a legitimate contender for the starting job entering 2022. Aranda ultimately chose him following spring practices, citing his passing ability and performance throughout the competition. Bohanon subsequently transferred to South Florida.
The decision was a gamble. Baylor moved on from an established championship quarterback in hopes of improving its passing attack, but the expected improvement never fully materialized.
Shapen threw 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 2022, while Baylor finished 6-7 after entering the season with expectations of contending for another Big 12 title.
Still, that doesn't mean Bohanon would have been the better choice. Shapen had earned consideration through his performance, and Bohanon's subsequent career was affected by injuries.
Aranda made a major change at the sport's most important position immediately after Baylor's most successful season, only for the offense to struggle with consistency afterward.
It's one of the more debatable decisions of his tenure rather than an obvious mistake.
5. Continuing to Call Defensive Plays in 2025
Aranda's decision to take over defensive play-calling following Baylor's disastrous 2023 season initially paid off. The Bears improved from 3-9 to 8-5 in 2024, while their defense reduced its scoring average allowed from 33.3 to 26.7 points per game.
However, the unit regressed in 2025, surrendering 32.6 points per game and ranking near the bottom of the Big 12. Those struggles contributed to another disappointing 5-7 season despite Baylor having one of the nation's most productive passing offenses.
Continuing to direct the defense while overseeing the entire program raised questions about whether Aranda had taken on too much. Although his defensive expertise was never in doubt, the arrangement potentially limited the attention he could devote to recruiting, roster construction and other head coaching duties.
Aranda eventually handed off play-calling responsibilities, hiring Kansas State defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman ahead of the 2026 season. With Klanderman directing the defense and additional personnel in place, Baylor held each of its first six opponents to 20 points or fewer, its longest such streak to open a season since 1966.
That improvement also reflected significant investments in defensive personnel, particularly along the line of scrimmage. Still, the turnaround raised questions about whether Aranda should have handed over those responsibilities sooner.
Taking control in 2024 helped stabilize the program. Sticking with that arrangement in 2025, however, became much harder to justify as Baylor's defense once again became a liability.
A Championship Followed by Missed Opportunities
Aranda's 2021 championship remains one of the greatest accomplishments in Baylor history, but his inability to sustain that success ultimately defined his tenure.
Not every decision was unreasonable at the time, and some are difficult to judge without hindsight. Still, too many failed to produce the results Baylor needed, leaving Aranda searching for answers as the program struggled to regain its footing.
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