Turkey pushing to expand influence in Lebanon, wider region with President's son's visit – analysis

Bilal Erdogan, the son of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, received an enthusiastic welcome in northern Lebanon during a three-day visit that also included meetings with senior Lebanese political leaders. The visit illustrates Turkey's efforts to expand its influence in Lebanon at a time when the regional balance of power is changing, particularly following the fall of the Assad regime in neighboring Syria.

The visit took Erdogan from Beirut to Tripoli and Akkar, areas where Turkey has historical, cultural, and religious connections. However, his meetings with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, and Future Movement Vice President Bahia Hariri is evidence that Ankara's outreach extends beyond its traditional relationships with Sunni communities in northern Lebanon.

Turkey already has a influence in Syria and has had forces in northern Iraq for years. It has increasingly eyed Lebanon for new foreign policy initiatives. Turkey also has a role in Libya, Somalia, and the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey-Israel tensions are increasing. Could Ankara’s role shift the balance of power in Lebanon and the region?

The visit attracted attention in the Lebanese media. Al-Akhbar, a newspaper associated with being pro-Hezbollah, described the reception in Tripoli as exceptional. "The exceptionally warm welcome Tripoli accorded Bilal, son of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, yesterday was not merely an expression of historical and social ties between the city and Turkey, but also carried political and economic significance," the newspaper reported on Saturday.

Al-Akhbar noted that the reception was particularly striking when compared with the more subdued welcome given to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun during a visit to Tripoli approximately two weeks earlier.

This comparison is important because it illustrates the visibility of Turkey's influence in northern Lebanon. The enthusiasm for Erdogan's visit reflects connections that have developed over decades, including cultural and educational initiatives, religious ties, and a shared Ottoman heritage.

Tripoli, Lebanon's second-largest city, retains important architectural and cultural reminders of Ottoman rule. It has a large Sunni population. As Hezbollah dominates southern Lebanon, Sunnis have often felt they don’t have a strong patron. This is especially true as Saudi Arabia had reduced its role in Lebanon’s politics. Syria left Lebanon in 2005 after the murder of Rafik Hariri. Later, Hezbollah intervened in the Syrian civil war in 2012. Erdogan's itinerary included the Hamidiyeh Clock Tower in Al-Tall Square, the city's old markets, and the Great Mansouri Mosque.

The clock tower, built during the reign of Ottoman Sultan Abdul Hamid II, was decorated with Lebanese and Turkish flags for the occasion. Erdogan also visited Salam al-Sibai, described by Al-Akhbar as a granddaughter of the Ottoman sultan. These stops appear symbolic. Turkey has emphasized its Ottoman-era connections across the Middle East as part of its cultural diplomacy. In Lebanon, this history provides Ankara with a foundation for relationships that extend beyond formal government institutions.

At the Great Mansouri Mosque, Erdogan was welcomed by the Mufti of Tripoli and the North, Sheikh Muhammad Imam. The reception also included Maronite Archbishop Youssef Soueif, Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri, parliamentarians, and local political and economic figures, reports said.

The participation of Christian and Muslim religious leaders gave the event a broader public character. Erdogan subsequently traveled to Akkar, where he visited Dar al-Fatwa in Halba and met Mufti Sheikh Zaid Zakaria, local parliamentarians, and religious representatives. According to Turkey's Haberler, Erdogan addressed young people in Arabic and conveyed greetings from his father. The Turkish report emphasized his use of Arabic and his message of friendship to Lebanese communities.

He also went to al-Kawashra, which has Turkmen roots and longstanding connections with Turkey. Turkey’s President Erdogan visited the town in 2010 alongside then-Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri. Saad is the son of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri who was murdered by Hezbollah in 2005. These connections help explain why northern Lebanon occupies an important place in Turkey's regional outreach.

Bilal Erdogan's visit was not limited to northern Lebanon. According to Turkey's pro-government Anadolu Agency, Erdogan and his delegation met Bahia Hariri, Jumblatt, and Berri in Beirut. The delegation included Turkish Ambassador Murat Lutem and Yunus Emre Institute President Selim Argun. The institute promotes Turkish language and culture abroad, illustrating the cultural dimension of Ankara's engagement.

The meetings are important because the Lebanese figures represent different political and communal constituencies. Bahia Hariri is associated with the Sunni Future Movement and the political legacy of her brother, former prime minister Rafik Hariri. Jumblatt is a central figure in Lebanon's Druze political establishment, while Berri leads the Shiite Amal Movement and has been supportive of Hezbollah.

Anadolu reported that Jumblatt highlighted Turkey's role in encouraging regional dialogue and stability and expressed support for expanding political, cultural, and economic cooperation. Berri's office said the discussions addressed bilateral relations and regional developments.

The role of these meetings suggests that Ankara is seeking relationships across Lebanon's political landscape rather than relying exclusively on its traditional Sunni partners. This is important in a country where regional powers have historically cultivated relationships with different political and religious communities. Iran backs Hezbollah as a proxy group, while Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have played important roles in Lebanese politics.

Turkey's approach combines political diplomacy with cultural influence, investment in educational institutions, and historical connections. The visit also highlighted the importance of Syria to Turkey's vision for Lebanon. According to Al-Akhbar, Erdogan said that developments in Syria had created an opportunity for him to visit Tripoli after circumstances in previous years had prevented such a trip.

He also emphasized the concept of a "geography of the heart," linking Turkey's security to stability in neighboring countries. Erdogan said Ankara "will never allow Lebanon to be left without support or a solution," according to Al-Akhbar. This language illustrates Turkey's perception of itself as a regional power with interests extending beyond its immediate borders.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December 2024 changed the strategic environment between Turkey and Lebanon. Ankara has developed close relations with Syria's new leadership and has sought to play an important role in the country's political and economic reconstruction.

For Lebanon, Syria is not just a neighboring country. It is the principal overland route connecting Lebanon to Turkey and European markets. Al-Akhbar reported that Erdogan's visit included proposals to expand trade and investment and revive land and rail connections between Lebanon and Turkey through Syria. Such initiatives could have particular significance for Tripoli, which has a port, commercial infrastructure, and proximity to the Syrian border.

The proposals also illustrate how Turkey may seek to translate its political relationships into economic influence. Rebuilding transport links would require substantial investment, improved infrastructure and stable security conditions in Syria. The visit did not establish that these projects have been approved or funded. This has to mean partnership of Riyadh and Ankara and also work with Syria.

Erdogan's trip comes at a time when Lebanon is navigating political and economic challenges alongside changes in the regional balance of power. Turkey, as noted above, has historical connections, cultural inroads, and relationships with Sunni in Lebanon. What is important about the latest visit is the combination of enthusiastic public receptions, meetings with political figures, and a clear regional vision connecting Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey.

The fact that a visit by the Turkish president's son attracted such attention also demonstrates the importance of personal and symbolic diplomacy in the region. Erdogan does not hold the office of Turkish foreign minister, and his visit should not be confused with a formal negotiation between governments. Nevertheless, his position within Turkey's political and cultural establishment gives his activities significance beyond those of an ordinary visiting foundation official.

The trip means that Ankara sees an opportunity to strengthen its position in Lebanon through several channels simultaneously. In northern Lebanon, it can draw on Ottoman heritage, Turkmen communities, and cultural relationships. In Beirut, it can engage political leaders across sectarian divisions. Through Syria, it can explore trade routes and infrastructure projects that would connect the eastern Mediterranean more closely to Turkey.

The broader question is how these initiatives will translate into lasting political and economic influence. For now, the reception given to Erdogan illustrates the extent to which Turkey has become a visible participant in Lebanon's changing regional relationships.