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Less than two weeks until the midterms and the Democrats are on pace for notable gains. The party is on the cusp of winning one chamber of Congress, and possibly both, if current trends hold.
President Trump’s policies are on the ballot, as he himself said. Unfortunately for him, his low approval ratings (south of 40%) have GOPers in battleground districts and states keeping him at arm’s length. Voters, overall, are in a sour mood, amid the Iran war, high fuel prices, trade wars, stubborn inflation, etc., and many place the blame on the party in power.
While the party out of power usually makes gains in midterm elections, we expect Democrats to do better than the historical norm. Democratic voter enthusiasm is high, though not always for individual candidates. Rather, those voters are eager to put up a roadblock against Trump’s policies.
Turnout also may be an issue for Republicans with the president not on the ballot. Republicans do have a big money advantage and are spending heavily now, with these midterms shaping up to be the most expensive in history. The GOP’s cash advantage could tip the scale its way, but probably isn’t enough.
Democrats are on track to win the House, with gains of 15 to 25 seats, which would give the party a majority similar to the one it won in the 2018 midterms. Political shifts have nearly neutralized the GOP’s redistricting advantage and taken one-time pickup opportunities, including some majority-Latino districts in Texas, out of contention. The effort may net them a handful of seats at most. Meanwhile, Republican spending is picking up in usually safe red districts, a sign that the party feels pressure to shore up potential political vulnerabilities.
The Senate is a bigger question. Democrats need a net gain of four seats, a tall order. And they are running in more competitive races than Republicans are. But races in GOP-held Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas are unusually tight, with Democratic candidates polling ahead or about even in each. Dems are also likely to flip a GOP-held seat in North Carolina and hang on to seats in battlegrounds Georgia and New Hampshire.
Republicans’ best shot at flipping a Democrat-held seat is Michigan, as the race is extremely tight. Winning there would significantly help the GOP retain the Senate.
Overall, Democrats hold the slightest of edges to capture the Senate. Whichever party wins, the margin of their majority will be slim, only a seat or two. If the GOP loses even one chamber, Trump’s legislative agenda would falter, unless he decides to strike deals with Democrats. But his working relationship with the party is almost nonexistent, and Dems are in no mood to change that. If they win the Senate, Trump’s cabinet and judicial nominees will also face long odds.
This first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.