Ballon d’Or 2026 odds still make Harry Kane the favourite for tonight’s ceremony, but the market has tightened sharply. William Hill now have Kane at 4/7, while Kylian Mbappe has been backed into 5/4 on the day of the vote reveal.
Kane was as short as 1/3 last week. Since then, money for Mbappe has pushed the France captain from 16/1 into a clear second favourite, and Lamine Yamal has drifted out to 6/1.
So what looked like a one-horse race on Thursday is now a genuine two-way contest. The 2026 Ballon d’Or is presented at the London Palladium tonight, with the awards starting at 8pm UK time.
Ballon d’Or 2026 odds checked at 4.15pm UK time on Monday 26th October. Best price is the biggest available with a UK bookmaker at that time.
Ballon d’Or 2026 odds: how the market has moved
Kane has been favourite since mid-October. He was 4/7 on 19th October, and William Hill then cut him to 1/3 on Thursday 22nd October, the shortest price of the year in this market.
However, the last four days have gone the other way. Kane is back out to 4/7 with William Hill, and he is 4/5 with bet365. Meanwhile, Mbappe has collapsed from 16/1 to 5/4, and bet365 even go evens.
Yamal is the big loser. He was odds-on at the start of October, then 2/1 last week. Now the Barcelona winger is 6/1, and one firm offers 14/1.
19th October prices via Sky Bet; 22nd and 26th October prices via William Hill.
Harry Kane – 4/7
Kane still goes into tonight as the favourite after the finest season of his career. He scored 61 goals in 51 games for Bayern Munich, more than anyone in Europe, as they won the Bundesliga and the DFB-Pokal.
He then led England to the World Cup semi-finals, scoring six goals along the way. If the bookmakers are right, he will be the first Englishman to win the award since Michael Owen in 2001. For the full case, read why Harry Kane should win the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
Kylian Mbappe – 5/4
Mbappe is the story of the day in the betting. The France captain became the all-time World Cup top goalscorer this summer, taking his tally to 22, and he won the tournament’s Golden Boot.
At 16/1 last week, the market gave him less than a 6% chance. At 5/4, it now rates him at better than 44%. That is a huge move so close to the ceremony, and it has turned the Ballon d’Or 2026 odds into a two-horse race.
Lamine Yamal – 6/1
Yamal inspired Spain to World Cup glory and shared favouritism with Kane for much of 2026. A win tonight would make him the youngest Ballon d’Or winner in history.
Still, the market has turned firmly against him this month. At 6/1, he is given about a 14% chance, and he is now a clear third in the betting.
Who else is in the Ballon d’Or betting?
Everyone else on the 30-man shortlist is 50/1 or bigger with William Hill. Lionel Messi is 50/1 for a ninth Ballon d’Or, while Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is 100/1 and Michael Olise is 150/1.
Bukayo Saka, Pedri, Desire Doue, Julian Alvarez, Raphinha and Federico Valverde are all 66/1 or bigger. So a winner from outside the top three would be a major upset. For every price and the full market, see our Ballon d’Or odds page.
When is the Ballon d’Or 2026 ceremony and how can I watch it?
The 70th Ballon d’Or ceremony takes place at the London Palladium tonight, Monday 26th October 2026. The awards start at 8pm UK time, with red carpet coverage from around 6pm, and the show should last about two hours.
It is the first time the ceremony has been held outside Paris. London was chosen as a tribute to Sir Stanley Matthews, who won the first Ballon d’Or in 1956.
UK viewers can watch live and free on DAZN with a free account. The official Ballon d’Or website also streams the ceremony.