South Africa is heading into summer with El Niño raising the risk of hotter temperatures and below-normal rainfall, adding pressure to water systems as communities battle unreliable supplies, failing infrastructure, and prolonged outages.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has warned that below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures are expected across much of the country from October to December 2026, while Gauteng is currently experiencing a heatwave.
The outlook comes as the government acknowledges deep-rooted weaknesses in water-service delivery, with mounting concerns about whether municipalities have the infrastructure, technical capacity and contingency plans to manage additional pressure on water resources.
Dr Lester Goldman, chief executive of the Water Institute of Southern Africa (WISA), said the approaching summer rainfall season should prompt an urgent assessment of the country’s preparedness.
“Climate forecasts are valuable, but their real impact depends on how effectively we use them,” Goldman said.
“We need professionals who can interpret changing conditions, assess local risks and translate reliable information into decisions before a potential water crisis becomes an emergency.”
Although El Niño does not guarantee drought in every region, the forecast reinforces the need for authorities to prepare for different scenarios, particularly where water systems are already under strain.
Goldman said climate resilience required more than access to information or the existence of contingency plans.
“It requires people with the technical knowledge and professional judgement to assess risks, work across disciplines and help decision-makers understand what those risks mean in practice,” he said.
This comes against the backdrop of a national water crisis that extends beyond the availability of water resources to the ability of municipalities to deliver safe, reliable supplies to households and businesses.
The National Water Action Plan identifies widespread weaknesses in municipal water services, including infrastructure deterioration, water losses and inadequate maintenance. It reports that 74% of Water Services Authorities scored poor or critical in drinking-water and/or wastewater-system assessments, while average non-revenue water stood at 47%, against a benchmark of 25%.
The plan also identifies 2 688 unserved communities where formal potable-water infrastructure is absent, dysfunctional, or residents lack access to basic services.
The Department of Water and Sanitation’s 2023 Blue Drop assessment, cited by WISA, found that 277 of 958 assessed water supply systems were in a critical state of performance.
These weaknesses raise questions about how effectively the country can respond if hotter and drier conditions intensify pressure on water supplies.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana also identified El Niño as a risk to the domestic economy in his 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, warning that it could affect production costs and output.
“Poorly maintained infrastructure, high water losses and weak municipal capacity have undermined service delivery,” Godongwana said.
“Too many households and businesses still face unreliable water supply.”
He said the National Water Action Plan sought to address both infrastructure and institutional failures, with priorities including improved operational performance, stronger governance and technical capacity, reduced water losses and reforms to water-infrastructure financing.
The human consequences of water-service failures are already evident. The South African Human Rights Commission (SAHRC) and the Claude Leon Chair in Earth Justice and Stewardship at the University of the Witwatersrand recently launched the Water Rights Tracker, a five-year research project assessing progress towards realising the right to water across all 144 Water Services Authorities.
The launch came amid reports that more than 400 people had suffered gastrointestinal illness following exposure to contaminated water in the Bronkhorstspruit area. SAHRC commissioner Dr Henk Boshoff said the incident illustrated the consequences of failures in water quality.
“The water crisis is impacting lives and livelihoods. We cannot afford to bury our heads in the sand, but we must tackle the water crisis head-on,” Boshoff said.
Prof Tracy-Lynn Field, chair in Earth Justice and Stewardship, said the tracker would help identify failures and strengthen accountability.
“Access to sufficient water is not a privilege or a political promise. It is a constitutional right,” Field said.
“The Water Rights Tracker offers a means of measuring whether that right is being realised, identifying where failures are occurring and ensuring that those responsible for delivering water services can be held to account.”
For Goldman, the immediate priority is to translate warnings into practical action before conditions deteriorate.
“South Africa cannot control the climate, but it can strengthen its ability to respond. Investing in professional competence, evidence-based planning and collaboration now can help us manage water risks more effectively, both during this coming season and in the years ahead.”