James Franklin kept his offense on the field for three fourth downs Saturday night in Death Valley. The one that got called gutsy was the safest bet of the three.
Down 16–13, Franklin called a timeout with 1:49 left, facing fourth-and-1 at the Clemson 5. He passed on the chip-shot field goal. Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer faked a handoff and found junior tight end Luke Reynolds wide open in the end zone with 1:44 to play. Virginia Tech won 20–16, its first win over Clemson since 2007. The Hokies are 6–2, 3–2 in the ACC and bowl-eligible in Franklin’s first season.
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney called the decision “gutsy.” Fair enough. But kicking only felt safer. It was the riskier way to play the last two minutes.
“It did enter my mind to kick the field goal,” Franklin said. He felt the momentum had swung to Clemson, and his team was on the road in a tough environment. Fourth-and-1, he said, was “as good of a situation as we were going to get.”
The kick only bought a coin flip
Start with what the field goal gets you. John Love makes the chip shot, and it’s 16–16. Clemson then gets the ball back with about the same clock it had on its real final drive: 1:41 and one timeout. The difference is that the Tigers would need only a field goal, and Nolan Hauser had already made three, including a 49-yarder. His career-long is 59 yards.
That drive isn’t hypothetical. Even needing a touchdown, Clemson reached its own 49 with 58 seconds left. Tait Reynolds then went deep down the left sideline to Bryant Wesco Jr., but replay ruled the pass incomplete, wiping out what would have been a 26-yard gain to the Virginia Tech 25. Mylachi Williams sealed the game with a sack on fourth-and-9. In a tie game, a 26-yard completion there puts Hauser in range to win it.
Survive that drive, and you’re in overtime. It would be on the road, against a defense that sacked Grunkemeyer six times and held the Hokies to a season-low 234 yards. Call overtime a coin flip. That makes 50% the kick’s ceiling, and the real number is lower because Clemson gets its two-minute drive first.
One yard, and a play they’d already run
Going for it asked for one yard. FBS teams convert about 55% of fourth downs, long ones included. Teams have historically converted fourth-and-1 about seven times in 10.
Run rough numbers on both paths. Going for it comes out ahead as long as the Hokies convert a little better than six times in 10, even if the kick gets its best-case coin flip. Give Clemson’s two-minute drive any real chance and the bar drops toward 50%. A conversion leaves first-and-goal inside the 5, with the tying kick still available. A miss probably loses the game. That’s the risk. It’s smaller than handing Clemson a tie and the ball.
The play call deserves its own credit. Virginia Tech ran 37 times for 70 yards. Grunkemeyer had already picked up a fourth-and-1 on the ground in the second quarter. Clemson had every reason to sell out against a sneak, and safety Corey Myrick said afterward that he wasn’t surprised the Hokies went for it.
That drive isn’t hypothetical. Even needing a touchdown, Clemson reached its own 49 with 58 seconds left. Tait Reynolds then found Bryant Wesco Jr. deep down the left sideline for what looked like a 26-yard gain to the Virginia Tech 25, but replay ruled he didn’t maintain possession. Mylachi Williams sealed the game with a sack on fourth-and-9. In a tie game, a 26-yard completion there puts Hauser in range to win it.
The fourth down that was a gamble
The night’s real gamble came in the second quarter. The game was tied 3–3, and Virginia Tech faced fourth-and-12 at its own 23. Franklin called a fake punt, and Luke Reynolds’s throw to punter Nathan Totten came up four yards short. The defense bailed him out with a three-and-out, forcing Clemson to punt.
Both calls kept the offense on the field. Only one was priced right. Fourth-and-12 in your own territory asks a trick play to beat long odds, and failure hands the other team a short field. Fourth-and-1 at the 5, down three with under two minutes left, asks for the most makeable yard in football with the lead waiting on the other side.
Where one play has decided this season
Three weeks before Clemson, Virginia Tech lost to Pitt 35–33 when John Love’s 36-yard field goal sailed wide left in the final seconds. A make there would have put the Hokies at 5–0. On Saturday, one yard made them bowl-eligible.
That’s how thin the line is for this team, and it’s why the reasoning behind Saturday’s call matters more than the result. Franklin didn’t go for it on feel. He considered the kick, read a road game that had been drifting toward Clemson, and decided fourth-and-1 was the best look his offense would get all night.
The next tests come quickly. After the bye, Virginia Tech visits SMU on Friday, Nov. 6, and plays at Miami on Saturday, Nov. 21. If either game comes down to a fourth-and-short in the final minutes, Saturday is the template.
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