Even After an AFC North-Leading 5–2 Record, Not Everyone Has Warmed Up to the Browns

The Cleveland Browns’ 5-2 AFC North-leading record with all five victories occurring in a come-from-behind fashion have impressed many in and around the NFL.

But not everybody. 

More than a few outlets are still skeptical that Cleveland can continue this brand of tight, play-from-behind, overall-point-deficit brand of football all the way to the team’s first division title since 1989 in the extinct AFC Central, despite five remaining games against teams with losing records, including three clubs at 2-5.

For example, ESPN Analytics has Cleveland with the worst chances among all four teams at just 5.5 percent, and Cincinnati as heavy favorites (68.3 percent) after Week 7 action. 

Squawka has even less faith, putting the Browns chances at just 4.9 percent. That’s pretty far off from where they currently see the Bengals, at 59.9 percent. 

And CBS Sports has a slightly better number for the Browns, at 8.6 percent probability of winning the division, but still lagging behind the other three clubs. 

The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator is a bit more generous with the Browns after their Week 7 win, putting their chances at a division title at 17 percent, while parking Cincinnati’s odds at 45 percent. This model has the Browns basically tied with Baltimore, also at 17 percent, just below the Steelers’ 21 percent. Cleveland’s upcoming game is a road match at Pittsburgh, who they haven’t swept in a regular season since 1988, so a win on Sunday could surely flip the script for the Browns.

Where the Browns have made impressive gains is in the betting markets, where they started the season off at +2100. Even before Sunday’s game, Cleveland was being listed in the +1000 to +1800 range, but after beating the Titans in a hard fought battle on the road, the Browns’ odds have improved to the +585-+700 range, depending on the sportsbook.

Why are people still being skeptical of the Browns?

For starters, Cleveland is carrying a -13 point differential, the only team in the division in the red after Week 7. Meanwhile, the Bengals are operating at +41 on the same stat. When push comes to shove, will the Browns be able to manufacture enough points to keep on winning down the road?

Then, there’s the four remaining divisional games on deck. Cleveland has yet to face the now heavy favorites Bengals, which they will do in Weeks 13 and 18. And, presumably, the Ravens will have Lamar Jackson back from injury in time for their Week 16 rematch. 

Of course, next week’s test at Accrisure Stadium will be a big one, as the Browns face off against the Steelers for the second time this year after a tight win on a Thursday night. Remember, sweeps occur in the AFC North at a much lower rate than what league-wide averages show.

Then, of course, there’s the question of how long do you expect to continue to win on the games’ last drive, a model that’s been proven unsustainable over the long run over and over again.

The Browns cleaned up a number of things this Sunday against the Titans, but keep in mind it was a 1-5 opponent still looking for its first home win in eight tries on the other side of the field. 

There’s no denying that Cleveland has been playing with fire, so it’s logical for so many to still be skeptical about the Browns until they prove they can win without the late-game drama.