India, US fine-tuning trade deal after concluding most discussions, says minister Piyush Goyal

THE HAGUE: India and the US have concluded most discussions on a proposed trade agreement and are fine-tuning the deal, commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said on Monday, signalling progress towards an agreement that could bring greater certainty to Indian exporters facing shifting US tariff policies.

“In the last four and a half years, friends, we have entered into nine free trade agreements or bilateral trade agreements. I'm adding the US in that, we have concluded most of the discussions and are fine-tuning the agreement,” Goyal said at the India-Netherlands Business Forum in The Hague.

For Indian exporters, a deal could provide greater predictability in pricing US-bound shipments and negotiating contracts. Any boost to exports would also offer timely support to an economy grappling with the fallout from the wars in West Asia and Ukraine.

Goyal’s remarks follow a recent visit to India by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said the two countries were “very, very close” to a trade agreement, with a small number of issues remaining to be resolved.

“We’re very, very close. I would say we’re about as close as you can be without (inaudible) agreement. I think there’s a small number of items to wrap up, so I think that will happen shortly,” Rubio had said.

“Just to give you the context of India thinking on opening our doors. Until 2014, all the free trade agreements put together opened a GDP of $10 trillion where we had preferential access or where we opened our doors to those countries,” said Goyal, who is on an official visit to the Netherlands.

“India would have opened its doors and had preferential market access to an additional $60 trillion worth of economies around the globe. Together, now we have $70 trillion of economies where we would have preferential trade agreements. I have eight more negotiations which are underway right now which will add another $15 trillion. So India would be opening its doors to $85 trillion out of $115 trillion. That's around 76% of global GDP with which we are building our partnership, opening the doors on a complementary and cooperative nature to greater business engagement,” Goyal said.

Bilateral trade between India and the US rose 6.53% to $140.76 billion in fiscal year 2026 (FY26), from $132.2 billion in the previous year. India’s trade surplus narrowed to $33.9 billion from $40.9 billion. Exports to the US edged up to $87.31 billion from $86.51 billion, while imports rose 17.16% to $53.45 billion from $45.62 billion.

The proposed agreement comes as global supply chains face disruption from the wars in West Asia and Ukraine, alongside a broader global slowdown. Goods exports remain important to India’s growth, with provisional commerce ministry data showing merchandise exports rose 23% year-on-year to $44.4 billion in September. Imports increased 8% to $74.61 billion, narrowing the trade deficit to $30.21 billion from $33 billion a year earlier.

“Despite all the problems of the world, we are the fastest growing large economy. We grew 7.7% last year. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) just came out with numbers…We're expected to go upward of 7%. My own guess is we'll grow 7.5% this year,” he said.

The IMF has raised its growth forecast for India by 60 basis points to 7% for FY27, reinforcing its position as the fastest-growing major economy.

Ramita Mishra contributed to the story.

The writer is in The Hague as the guest of Confederation of Indian Industry.

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