Diego Delso
Iran International has reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Intelligence Organization orchestrated a quasi-coup to regain control of Iran’s sanctioned oil trade. The report indicates that the IRGC is attempting to revive its network of trustees, who are involved in managing the trade of sanctioned oil. This development is alleged to involve several IRGC officials and suggests a significant internal power struggle within Iran over the management of oil revenue channels. The report highlights a transfer of these channels from the UAE to Russia, which may suggest an effort to solidify the network rather than dismantle it.
Key Takeaways
- The report suggests the IRGC Intelligence Organization’s actions are aimed at reviving its corruption network and controlling oil trade.
- Markets appear to interpret this as increasing the likelihood of instability within Iranian leadership.
- The current market pricing shows a slight increase in the perceived likelihood of President Masoud Pezeshkian’s departure by year-end.
What to Watch
Observers will be closely monitoring any statements from key Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, for indications of internal political shifts. Any public support or opposition from influential figures such as Mojtaba Khamenei or the IRGC could further impact market perceptions. Continued reporting by Iran International or other media outlets on the internal dynamics of Iran’s leadership could provide additional insights into the evolving situation.